How Starmer has improved Labour's poll results

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After Keir Starmer had been Leader for a month, I examined opinion poll averages to see what effect his election had had on Labour's vote share (as well as his own personal ratings). At the time, the effect was notable but not sizeable: Labour had gained slightly in vote share, Starmer had a positive net approval rating, and he was doing better in 'Best Prime Minister' polls than Corbyn.

The overall impression was thus that he had made a promising start, but nothing too unremarkable compared to past Leaders. Yet now, three months on from Starmer's election as Leader, "unremarkable" is the last word I would use to describe the polls.

As the graph below shows, Labour's average vote share in polls and their estimated seat total has risen sizeably since Starmer won. From averaging 29% in March, Labour has risen to 38% in June - a higher share of the vote than Labour won in 2019, 2015, 2010 or 2005 and just 3pts below what the party won within Great Britain in 2017 (41%).

In this article I'll examine how the polls have improved for Labour in terms of voting intention and leadership approval ratings.

Voting intention

In Keir Starmer's first month as Leader (April), there was little-to-no overall change in the polls. The Conservatives remained 20pts ahead in the polls, with Labour averaging 31% of the vote - slightly more than in March, but still less than in the 2019 election.

This has now changed. In June 2020, the Conservatives have fallen to 43% (-8pts since April) and Labour has risen to 38% (+7pts), whilst the Liberal Democrats have risen slightly to 8% (+1pt). The SNP and Greens remain unchanged on 4% each. The Conservatives' lead has been reduced from 20pts to just 5pts in three months, a smaller lead over Labour than in 2019, 2015 or 2010.

My full poll average in June, with changes since April, is as follows:

Tories 43% (-8), Labour 38% (+7), LD 8% (+1), SNP 4% (-), Green 4% (-), BXP 1% (-)

In terms of estimated seats in Parliament, the changes are even more dramatic. In April, I estimated that the Tories' 20pt lead would have resulted in a Conservative majority of 156 seats - the party's biggest Parliamentary majority since 1935. In June, however, this estimated majority has vanished.

I would now estimate that the Tories' 5pt lead would result in a Conservative majority of just 12 seats, a substantial decline from their current overall majority of 80 seats. It is virtually identical to the 10-seat majority achieved by the Conservatives in the 2015 general election.

My full seat estimate in June, with changes since April, is as follows:

Tories 331 (-72), Labour 235 (+66), SNP 51 (+3), LD 9 (+2), Plaid 4 (+1), Green 1 (-), Other 19 (-)

There's no question, therefore, that Starmer has overseen a substantial improvement for Labour in opinion polls. Labour's poll average in June (38%) is the party's highest in a monthly average of polls since August 2018 (39%), whilst Labour's estimated seat total of 235 seats is the party's highest in a monthly seat estimate since July 2019 (251 seats).

Voting intention - Remainers and Leavers

So where is this support coming from? Plenty of Labour supporters, myself included, assumed that Starmer would struggle with Leave voters and would win back far more Remain voters than Leave voters. Yet that isn't what has happened. Let's look at Remain voters first.

Labour 54% (+6), Tories 21% (-6), LD 11% (-1), SNP 7% (+1), Greens 4% (-1)

As you can see, amongst people who voted Remain in 2016 there has been a 6pt swing from the Conservatives to Labour since April. Labour has now risen to 54% amongst Remain voters, which is higher than the 49% of the vote that Labour won amongst Remainers in 2019. It is notable that 54% is just below the 55% that the party won amongst Remain voters in the 2017 general election.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are averaging 21%, and whilst this is slightly higher than the 19% that the party won in 2019, it is lower than the 24% that they won amongst Remain voters in 2017.

The Liberal Democrats (11%) have largely collapsed amongst Remain voters, losing nearly half of their support amongst Remain voters compared to 2019 (when they won 21%) and even polling slightly below their 2017 result amongst Remainers (12%).

Let's look at Leave voters now.

Tories 67% (-10), Labour 19% (+7), LD 3% (+1), Brexit 2% (+1), SNP 2% (-), Green 2% (-1)

As the graph demonstrates, there has been a sizeable decline in support for the Conservatives amongst Leave voters since April. After averaging an impressive 77% amongst Leavers in April, the Tories have declined by 10pts and averaged 67% in June. This also represents a decline compared to their 2019 result amongst Leave voters (74%) but is still slightly higher than their 2017 result amongst Leavers (64%).

Labour, meanwhile, still has not managed to return to the level of support that it had amongst Leave voters in 2017 (24%). However, its June average of 19% amongst Leave voters is still a sizeable increase compared to April (12%) and the 2019 election (14%).

No other party averaged more than 3% amongst Leave voters in either April or June, so changes for smaller parties amongst Leave voters are not statistically significant.

As you can see, Labour has increased its support by 6pts amongst Remain voters and by 7pts amongst Leave voters - meaning that it has won back more slightly Leavers than Remainers since Starmer became Labour Leader. There has also been a bigger swing to Labour amongst Leavers (9%) than amongst Remainers (6%) since April. This very much suggests that Starmer's history of campaigning for Remain has not alienated Leave voters.

In fact, because Labour started with a smaller number of pro-Leave supporters, the 7pt increase in support amongst Leavers is arguably more significant: the party's support amongst Leavers has increased by 58%, compared to an increase of 13% amongst Remainers. All in all, Starmer is not showing any particular weakness with Leave voters in terms of voting intention.

Approval Ratings

So what about Keir Starmer's individual approval ratings?

In short: they're good.

Very good.

On average in June, 41% of voters approved of Starmer and 22% disapproved, a net approval rating of +19. This is the highest average net approval rating for any Labour Leader since 2007.

Approve 41% (+10), Disapprove 22% (+3), Don't know / neither 36% (-14)

It is difficult to emphasise just how impressive these numbers are. Starmer's 41% approval rating is itself impressive: Ed Miliband never once averaged above 40% approval during the five years that he led the party. Corbyn, meanwhile, only managed to do so in June and July 2017.

Starmer's "net" rating, meanwhile - the difference between his approval and disapproval - is even more impressive. Corbyn only ever managed a net positive rating once: in July 2017 (+4), whilst Miliband only achieved it in September and October 2010 (+12 in both months). Starmer's average net approval, meanwhile, is a stunning +19.

One stat that worried Labour supporters in April was the fact that half of voters didn't know anything about Starmer. It was unclear what these voters would think once Starmer became more widely known. Well, we now have our answer: they like Starmer. The percentage of voters without an opinion has declined from 50% to 36% (-14), but the percentage disapproving of Starmer has barely changed (+3). The percentage approving of Starmer, meanwhile, has increased substantially (+10).

But, as with voting intention, the question remains: where is Starmer's support coming from?

Approval Ratings - Remainers and Leavers

In terms of voting intention, Starmer has won back slightly more Leavers than Remainers since April. However, the same cannot be said of his approval ratings. Let's look at Remain voters first.

Approve 57% (+10), Disapprove 14% (+2), Don't know / neither 29% (-13)

Amongst Remain voters, Starmer's approval started positively (47% approve, 12% disapprove) and has only gotten better. Since April, the percentage of Remainers who approve of Starmer has risen by 10pts, with the percentage who disapprove barely changing (+2). The percentage of Remainers without an opinion has fallen from 42% to just 29% (-13), and most of these voters now have a positive opinion of Starmer.

However, amongst Leave voters, the picture is somewhat different - not bad as such, but not as good.

Approve 30% (+8), Disapprove 35% (+6), Don't know / neither 35% (-15)

Since April, the percentage of Leavers with no opinion of Starmer has fallen from 50% to 35% (-15). However, unlike with Remainers, these voters were more evenly divided in their impressions of Starmer. The percentage approving of Starmer rose by 8pts, whilst the percentage disapproving of him rose by 6pts. This did narrow the gap slightly, however - Starmer's net approval amongst Leavers rose from -7 to -5.

More notable is the fact that 30% of Leave voters have a positive opinion of Keir Starmer. Given the fact that most Leave voters support the Conservatives, and the fact that Starmer was a vocal supporter of Remain, it's impressive that a sizeable 30% of Leavers approve of the Labour Party's leader.

Best Prime Minister polling

One particular problem that Corbyn always faced in polling was that, when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, voters always said the Conservative Leader. Over the five years that he led the Labour Party, the closest that Corbyn came to outpolling the incumbent Prime Minister on this question was in October 2017, when Theresa May had an average lead of 1pt.

Starmer has not yet polled ahead of Boris Johnson on average. But since becoming Leader, he has narrowed the gap between him and the Prime Minister significantly. In April, Boris Johnson had a 24pt lead on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister; that has now fallen to 7pts. In one poll conducted at the very end of June, Starmer polled 2pts ahead of Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson 41% (-5), Keir Starmer 33% (+11), Don't know / neither 27% (-5)

Amongst Remain voters, Starmer has a commanding lead that has only increased since April:

Boris Johnson 21% (-5), Keir Starmer 53% (+9), Don't know / neither 26% (-4)

Amongst Leavers, however, Boris Johnson has an overwhelming lead. Having said that, Starmer has gained more support amongst Leave voters (+10) since April than amongst Remain voters (+9).

Boris Johnson 61% (-9), Keir Starmer 17% (+10), Don't know / neither 20% (+2)

The net swing to Starmer since April amongst Remain voters was 7pts, whilst the net swing to Starmer amongst Leave voters was 10pts.

In short, whilst Starmer remains behind on the question of who would make the best PM, he is rapidly closing the gap and is doing so at a largely equal rate amongst Remain and Leave voters.

Conclusion

So, let's summarise the key changes since April:

• In voting intention polls, there has been a net swing to Labour of 8pts

• The Tories' average poll lead has fallen from 20pts to 5pts 

• In terms of seats, the Tories' estimated majority has fallen from 156 seats to 12 seats

• Starmer's net approval is now  +19, the highest of any Labour Leader since 2007

• Boris Johnson's lead on the Best PM question has fallen from 24pts to 8pts

It certainly seems as if the more that people get to know Starmer, the more that they like him. Starmer has presided over a dramatic increase in Labour's poll averages and in his own approval ratings.

However, we will have to see if this continues. The trend is very, very positive but Labour still has yet to poll ahead of the Tories in any poll. We will have to see what happens in the months to come, and in the 2021 local elections, to get a better sense of how Starmer has transformed Labour's fortunes. I very much hope that we continue to see improvements.