Polling round-up: the 2019 general election, week 3

This article was made possible by our Patreon supporters! Special thanks in particular go to our amazing $5 supporters: Vincent Calabrese, Scott Folan, Josuke Higashikata, Chloe Hopkins, Harry Jackson, Stephen Kaar, Bert Rothkugel, sn, Alan Spence, Alex Wilson

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The 2019 general election is now in full swing. Both major parties have released their manifestos, the debates have begun, and the minor parties are collapsing.

The Brexit Party, in particular, has almost completely collapsed; this is partly due to the pollsters adjusting their methodology to take account of the Brexit Party's decision not to stand in the 317 seats that were won by the Tories in 2017. Unsurprisingly, the Tories have gained the most from the Brexit Party's collapse, but with 2-and-a-half weeks to go the Tories are running out of Leave votes to gain and are doing worse than at this point in 2017.

Labour's policies, meanwhile, have been recieved very positively - and its Brexit policy is actually the most popular policy of all the parties. This election is still wide open, and either major party could win. So let's take a look at the polls.

What the polls looked like in Week 3 (18th-24th November)

In the week of 18th-24th November, the average of polls was (changes since the week of 11th-17th November): 

Tories 43% (+2), Labour 30% (+1), Lib Dems 15% (-), Brexit 4% (-2), SNP 4% (+1), Greens 3% (-)

According to my seat estimate, the seat result would be (changes since the week of 4th-10th November): 

Tories 360 (+3), Labour 206 (-2), SNP 41 (-), Lib Dems 20 (-1), Others 23 (-)

The Tories’ gains last week were again almost entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party, partly because pollsters made changes to their methodology to account for the fact that the Brexit Party is not standing in the 317 seats that were won by the Tories in 2017. Overall, both major parties gained votes over the past week, and largely stood still relative to one another.

Amongst Leave voters, voting intention in 11th-17th November was, on average, as follows (changes since 4th-10th November):

Tories 69% (+2), Labour 14% (-), Brexit 8% (-3), Lib Dems 3% (-1), SNP 2% (-), Grn 2% (+1)

Amongst Remain voters, voting intention was:

Labour 44% (-), Lib Dems 26% (-), Tories 18% (-1), SNP 5% (-), Green 4% (-1)

Whilst the Tories are increasing their vote at the expense of the Brexit Party, Labour also continues to increase its support. The party is now averaging 30% in polls; in the week before MPs voted for an election, the party was averaging 23%.

The Lib Dems have not had a good week. Their average vote share in polls remains 15%, their lowest vote share in a weekly average since 20th-27th May (when they averaged 13%), and their estimated seat total has fallen to just 20 seats – which would represent a net gain of just 8 seats compared to 2017. Labour is now estimated to win 208 seats to the Lib Dems' 20.

For Jo Swinson to fulfill her ambition of becoming Prime Minister, she would now need to increase the Lib Dems' support by over 10 million votes in less than three weeks. That simply isn't going to happen. Either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn will win this election. Nobody else can.

Labour's policies are popular

Last week, Labour released its 2019 manifesto - and just like in 2017, the party's policies were recieved favourably by the public. DeltaPollUK polled the public to ask what they thought of particular policies, and these were the results:

All of the Labour policies listed in the poll had the support of a plurality of voters, and all but two (free broadband and Labour's Brexit policy) had the support of a majority of voters. The party's pledge to increase health spending by 4.3% a year is the most popular policy, winning the support of 81% of voters. Notably, its policy of raising taxes for those earning over £80,000 a year (whilst freezing taxes for everyone else) is also overwhelmingly popular.

Labour's Brexit policy, which has often been dismissed by centrists as a fudge that pleases nobody, is in fact the most popular Brexit policy out of all three major parties - and is the only policy that has more supporters than opponents.

Surprisingly, Labour's Brexit policy is actually more popular amongst Remain voters than the Liberal Democrats' pledge to revoke Article 50.

How is Labour doing compared to this point in 2017?

MPs voted to hold the 2017 general election on 19th April 2017, so the period of time most comparable to Week 3 of the 2019 campaign was the week of 8th-14th May 2017.

At this point in 2017, Labour was averaging 30%. The Tories’ average poll lead was 17pts, and their estimated majority was 110 seats. By comparison, the Tories’ average poll lead this week was 13pts, and their estimated majority was 70 seats.

Over the following few weeks, Labour support rose steadily until the party was averaging 36-37%, as shown in the chart below. Labour then outperformed these polls and won 41% within Great Britain in the 2017 election.

Summary

In last week's article, I wrote that:

"This week will see the publication of the 2019 manifesto and the Leaders’ debates, and all we need this week to continue on the 2017 trajectory is a gain of 1pt – and if the manifesto doesn’t deliver at least a 1pt increase in Labour’s vote share, I will be amazed."

Even though the manifesto usually takes about a week to affect the polls, Labour's vote share did indeed increase by 1pt this week, meaning that the party has already gained 7pts in three weeks. The party is performing just as well as it did at this point in 2017, and it is winning back Remainers at the speed of light, whilst the Tories are doing worse than they were doing at this point in 2017.

With two-and-a-half weeks left, we are closer to the Tories in the polls than we were at this point in 2017. The Lib Dems are collapsing, Remainers are flocking to the Labour Party, and the Tories have maxed out their Leave vote whilst alienating Lib Dem-leaning Tory Remainers.

Remainers aren’t voting for the Lib Dems: they now support Labour

This article was made possible by our Patreon supporters! Special thanks in particular go to our amazing $5 supporters: Vincent Calabrese, Scott Folan, Josuke Higashikata, Chloe Hopkins, Harry Jackson, Stephen Kaar, Bert Rothkugel, sn, Alan Spence, Alex Wilson

To support Stats for Lefties on Patreon, visit https://www.patreon.com/leftiestats

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“We are the party of Remain”, said Jo Swinson when she was elected as Leader of the Liberal Democrats in June 2019.

But Remainers don’t seem to agree.

Ever since the 2019 general election began, the Liberal Democrats – running on a manifesto pledge to revoke Article 50 – have been rapidly losing the support of Remain voters, with Remainers overwhelmingly rallying behind the Labour Party’s second referendum policy as the best and most credible way to stop Brexit. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

1) Remainers support Labour’s Brexit policy

In a poll conducted on 21-23 November, DeltaPollUK found that more Remain voters support Labour's policy of holding a referendum on a renegotiated Brexit than support revoking Article 50.

Furthermore, in September 2019, YouGov asked voters in a poll how they would feel if Labour supported particular policies on Brexit. Amongst Remain voters, 59% said that they would feel delighted/pleased if Labour adopted a policy of holding a referendum on a renegotiated Brexit deal; just 17% said that they would be disappointed/angry.

2) Remainers support Labour now, not the Lib Dems

Following the European Elections, in which the Liberal Democrats came second with 20%, Remain voters increasingly began to support the Lib Dems in opinion polls. This support reached its highest in the week of 23rd-29th September, when 38% of Remain voters said that they would vote Lib Dem – a 4pt lead over the Labour Party. The following weeks saw Labour and the Lib Dems tied for first place amongst Remainers.

But once the 2019 general election begun, Remainers began to rally behind the Labour Party; Labour’s support amongst Remainers (44%) is now at its highest since the week of 8th-14th April (when it was 48%).

In the past four weeks, Labour’s support amongst Remainers has risen from 34% to 44% (+10). With two-and-a-half weeks left before polling day, and with Labour’s support amongst Remainers rising by an average of 3pts per week, it is looking increasingly likely that Labour will equal (or even surpass) its 2017 vote share of 55% with Remainers.

So much for the idea that Remainers will never vote for Corbyn!

3) Remainers are liking Corbyn more and more, and Swinson less and less

In the week before MPs voted to hold the 2019 election (21st-27th October) Jo Swinson had an average net approval rating with Remain voters of +13pts, whilst Corbyn had an average net approval rating of -30pts. In the weeks since then, this gap has narrowed. Here’s Corbyn’s average approval rating amongst Remainers over time

Meanwhile, here is Jo Swinson’s approval rating amongst Remainers:

Swinson’s net approval rating has fallen from +13pts to +7pts in just a few weeks, whilst Corbyn’s net approval rating has risen from -30pts to -15pts.

After this week’s TV debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, Remainers were very positive about Corbyn. According to a YouGov poll of voters who watched the debate, amongst Remain voters:

-> 82% thought that Corbyn came across as more in touch with ordinary people

-> 77% thought that Jeremy Corbyn performed best overall

-> 73% thought that Corbyn came across as more trustworthy

-> 60% thought that Corbyn came across as more likeable

-> By a 16pt margin, they thought that Corbyn came across as more Prime Ministerial

-> By a 6pt margin, they thought that Corbyn performed best during the Brexit section of the debate

Conclusion

In this context, the argument that the Lib Dems are now the tactical vote choice in strongly pro-Remain areas is beginning to look very outdated. Remainers are overwhelmingly supporting the Labour Party now, not the Lib Dems; and rightly so, as only Labour can actually deliver a People’s Vote and give Britain the opportunity to remain in the European Union.

In 88% of the most marginal seats that were won by the Tories in 2017, Labour came second; Labour is currently averaging 30% in polls to the Lib Dems' 15%; most Remainers support the Labour Party, not the Liberal Democrats; and more Remainers prefer the Labour Party's Brexit policy than prefer the Lib Dems' Brexit policy.

All the available evidence shows that Labour is the party of Remain - not the Lib Dems.
If you're a Remainer, the choice is clear: either we leave the EU with Boris Johnson, or have a 2nd referendum with Jeremy Corbyn. There is no other possible outcome. The choice is yours.

Polling round-up: the 2019 general election, week 2

This article was made possible by our Patreon supporters! Special thanks in particular go to our amazing $5 supporters: Vincent Calabrese, Scott Folan, Josuke Higashikata, Chloe Hopkins, Harry Jackson, Stephen Kaar, Bert Rothkugel, sn, Alan Spence, Alex Wilson

To support Stats for Lefties on Patreon, visit https://www.patreon.com/leftiestats

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The 2019 general election is underway! The Labour manifesto will be announced this week, and the Leaders’ debates are about to begin. This week will be very important. But for now, let's look at last week's polls.

Unsurprisingly, the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in seats that the Tories won in 2017 led to the Conservatives gaining in the polls, but Labour gained votes too, and the Tories are still doing worse than at this point in 2017.

Centrists are once again trying to label Corbyn as unelectable before a single vote has even been cast. But they’re wrong.

What the polls looked like in Week 2 (11th-17th November)

In the week of 11th-17th November, the average of polls was (changes since the week of 4-10 November):

Tories 41% (+3), Labour 29% (+1), Lib Dems 15% (-1), Brexit 6% (-3), SNP 3% (-1), Greens 3% (-)

According to my seat estimate, the seat result would be (changes since the week of 4th-10th November):

Tories 357 (+19), Labour 208 (-11), SNP 41 (-3), Lib Dems 21 (-5), Others 23 (-)

The Tories’ gains this week have been almost entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party, partly because pollsters have made changes to their methodology to account for the fact that the Brexit Party is not standing in the 317 seats that were won by the Tories in 2017. Amongst Leave voters, voting intention in 11th-17th November was, on average, as follows (changes since 4th-10th November):

Tories 67% (+7), Labour 14% (+1), Brexit 11% (-7), Lib Dems 4% (-), SNP 2% (-), Grn 1% (-1)

Amongst Remain voters, voting intention was:

Labour 44% (+3), Lib Dems 26% (-3), Tories 19% (+1), SNP 5% (-), Green 5% (+1)

Whilst the Tories are increasing their vote at the expense of the Brexit Party, Labour also continues to increase its support – in Labour’s case, at the expense of the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems have not had a good week. Their average vote share in polls has fallen to 15%, their lowest vote share in a weekly average since 20th-27th May (when they averaged 13%), and their estimated seat total has fallen to just 21 seats – which would represent a net gain of just 9 seats compared to 2017.

This is a massive loss of support for the Lib Dems. Just a few months ago, they seemed to be on the verge of a breakthrough. In the week of 10th-16th June, the Lib Dems were averaging 21% in polls and their seat estimate was 60 seats (they won 12 seats in 2017). Their support has now collapsed, and the party is losing more and more Remain voters every week, as the chart below demonstrates.

How is Labour doing compared to this point in 2017? 

MPs voted to hold the 2017 general election on 19th April 2017, so the period of time most comparable to Week 2 of the 2019 campaign was the week of 1st-7th May 2017.

At this point in 2017, Labour was averaging 29%. The Tories’ average poll lead was 18pts, and their estimated majority was 116 seats. By comparison, the Tories’ average poll lead this week was 12pts, and their estimated majority was 64 seats.

Over the following few weeks, Labour support rose steadily until the party was averaging 36-37%, as shown in the chart below. Labour then outperformed these polls and won 41% within Great Britain in the 2017 election.

What is notable about the 2017 campaign is that, whilst Labour’s support rose significantly over the course of the campaign (+10pts) it never rose by more than 3pts (on average) in any particular week. Indeed, aside from the week of 15-21 May 2017, Labour’s support never rose by more than 2pts.

Therefore, even if we are on course for another 2017-style Labour resurgence, we should not expect to see significant changes in any particular week. In fact, Labour’s gains in the week of 11th-17th November (+1pt) are exactly what we should be expecting to see if Labour’s 2017 gains are being repeated.

Summary

In short, Labour is gaining in the polls every week. It has gained 6pts in just three weeks, it is performing just as well as it did at this point in 2017, and it is winning back Remainers at the speed of light.

All in all, last week went okay. The Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in seats won by the Tories in 2017 unsurprisingly led to an increase in the Tories’ vote share, but Labour’s vote has also increased. This week will see the publication of the 2019 manifesto and the Leaders’ debates, and all we need this week to continue on the 2017 trajectory is a gain of 1pt – and if the manifesto doesn’t deliver at least a 1pt increase in Labour’s vote share, I will be amazed.

Polling round-up: the 2019 general election, week 1

This article was made possible by our Patreon supporters! Special thanks in particular go to our amazing $5 supporters: Vincent Calabrese, Scott Folan, Josuke Higashikata, Chloe Hopkins, Harry Jackson, Stephen Kaar, sn, Alan Spence, Alex Wilson

To support Stats for Lefties on Patreon, visit https://www.patreon.com/leftiestats

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The 2019 general election has begun. With Parliament unwilling to pass his Brexit deal by his self-imposed deadline of October 31st, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a general election, and the Labour Party agreed.

The campaign has begun – and this time, Labour can win.

Let’s take a look at what the polls looked like just before the election began, and what’s changed over the past week (4th-10th November).

What the polls looked like before the election

In the week before Parliament voted for an early general election, the Tories had good reason to feel confident about winning a snap election. In the week of 21st-27th October, their poll lead was impressive: they led Labour by 15pts, which on a universal swing would result in a Conservative majority of 74 seats – the biggest Conservative majority since 1987.

However, this has rapidly changed.

What the polls look like now

In the two weeks since then, Labour has rapidly improved its share of the vote, whilst the Tories’ share of the vote (38%) has not changed.

In 14 days, Labour’s average vote share has risen from 23% to 28%, a change driven largely by gains amongst Remain voters. In the week of 21st-27th October, voting intention amongst Remain voters was:

Labour 34%, Lib Dem 33%, Tories 18%, Green 7%, SNP 6% 

But by the week of 4th-10th November, this had shifted to:

Labour 41% (+7), Lib Dem 29% (-4), Tories 18% (-), SNP 6% (-), Green 5% (-2) 

Labour has also increased its vote share amongst Leave voters from 10% to 13%.

As a result of these Labour gains, the Tories’ lead has fallen from 15pts to 10pts after just two weeks. The overall changes are:

Tories 38% (-), Labour 28% (+5), Lib Dem 16% (-2), Brexit 9% (-2), SNP 4% (-), Green 3% (-1)

As a result, the Tories’ estimated majority has substantially declined. In the week of 4th-10th November, the Tories’ estimated majority was just 28 seats – down from 74 seats just two weeks ago.

It is worth bearing in mind that, at a similar stage in the 2017 election campaign, the Tories’ estimated majority was an astonishing 114 seats. They went on to lose their majority just 5 weeks later.

How is Labour doing compared to this point in 2017?

MPs voted to hold the 2017 general election on 19th April 2017, so the period of time most comparable to Week 1 of the 2019 campaign was the week of 24th-30th April 2017. At this point in 2017, Labour was averaging 28%. The Tories’ average poll lead was 18pts, and their estimated majority was 114 seats.

Over the following few weeks, Labour support rose steadily, as shown in the chart below.

What is notable about the 2017 campaign is that, whilst Labour’s support rose significantly over the course of the campaign, it never rose by more than 3pts (on average) in any particular week. Indeed, aside from the week of 15-21 May 2017, Labour’s support never rose by more than 2pts. Therefore, even if we are on course for another 2017-style Labour resurgence, we should not expect to see significant changes in any particular week.

Instead, as long as Labour’s support is consistently rising by 2-3pts every single week, we should be in a very good position to win on December 12th.