Polling round-up: the 2019 general election, week 2

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The 2019 general election is underway! The Labour manifesto will be announced this week, and the Leaders’ debates are about to begin. This week will be very important. But for now, let's look at last week's polls.

Unsurprisingly, the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in seats that the Tories won in 2017 led to the Conservatives gaining in the polls, but Labour gained votes too, and the Tories are still doing worse than at this point in 2017.

Centrists are once again trying to label Corbyn as unelectable before a single vote has even been cast. But they’re wrong.

What the polls looked like in Week 2 (11th-17th November)

In the week of 11th-17th November, the average of polls was (changes since the week of 4-10 November):

Tories 41% (+3), Labour 29% (+1), Lib Dems 15% (-1), Brexit 6% (-3), SNP 3% (-1), Greens 3% (-)

According to my seat estimate, the seat result would be (changes since the week of 4th-10th November):

Tories 357 (+19), Labour 208 (-11), SNP 41 (-3), Lib Dems 21 (-5), Others 23 (-)

The Tories’ gains this week have been almost entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party, partly because pollsters have made changes to their methodology to account for the fact that the Brexit Party is not standing in the 317 seats that were won by the Tories in 2017. Amongst Leave voters, voting intention in 11th-17th November was, on average, as follows (changes since 4th-10th November):

Tories 67% (+7), Labour 14% (+1), Brexit 11% (-7), Lib Dems 4% (-), SNP 2% (-), Grn 1% (-1)

Amongst Remain voters, voting intention was:

Labour 44% (+3), Lib Dems 26% (-3), Tories 19% (+1), SNP 5% (-), Green 5% (+1)

Whilst the Tories are increasing their vote at the expense of the Brexit Party, Labour also continues to increase its support – in Labour’s case, at the expense of the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems have not had a good week. Their average vote share in polls has fallen to 15%, their lowest vote share in a weekly average since 20th-27th May (when they averaged 13%), and their estimated seat total has fallen to just 21 seats – which would represent a net gain of just 9 seats compared to 2017.

This is a massive loss of support for the Lib Dems. Just a few months ago, they seemed to be on the verge of a breakthrough. In the week of 10th-16th June, the Lib Dems were averaging 21% in polls and their seat estimate was 60 seats (they won 12 seats in 2017). Their support has now collapsed, and the party is losing more and more Remain voters every week, as the chart below demonstrates.

How is Labour doing compared to this point in 2017? 

MPs voted to hold the 2017 general election on 19th April 2017, so the period of time most comparable to Week 2 of the 2019 campaign was the week of 1st-7th May 2017.

At this point in 2017, Labour was averaging 29%. The Tories’ average poll lead was 18pts, and their estimated majority was 116 seats. By comparison, the Tories’ average poll lead this week was 12pts, and their estimated majority was 64 seats.

Over the following few weeks, Labour support rose steadily until the party was averaging 36-37%, as shown in the chart below. Labour then outperformed these polls and won 41% within Great Britain in the 2017 election.

What is notable about the 2017 campaign is that, whilst Labour’s support rose significantly over the course of the campaign (+10pts) it never rose by more than 3pts (on average) in any particular week. Indeed, aside from the week of 15-21 May 2017, Labour’s support never rose by more than 2pts.

Therefore, even if we are on course for another 2017-style Labour resurgence, we should not expect to see significant changes in any particular week. In fact, Labour’s gains in the week of 11th-17th November (+1pt) are exactly what we should be expecting to see if Labour’s 2017 gains are being repeated.

Summary

In short, Labour is gaining in the polls every week. It has gained 6pts in just three weeks, it is performing just as well as it did at this point in 2017, and it is winning back Remainers at the speed of light.

All in all, last week went okay. The Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in seats won by the Tories in 2017 unsurprisingly led to an increase in the Tories’ vote share, but Labour’s vote has also increased. This week will see the publication of the 2019 manifesto and the Leaders’ debates, and all we need this week to continue on the 2017 trajectory is a gain of 1pt – and if the manifesto doesn’t deliver at least a 1pt increase in Labour’s vote share, I will be amazed.