Polling round-up: the 2019 general election, week 1

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The 2019 general election has begun. With Parliament unwilling to pass his Brexit deal by his self-imposed deadline of October 31st, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a general election, and the Labour Party agreed.

The campaign has begun – and this time, Labour can win.

Let’s take a look at what the polls looked like just before the election began, and what’s changed over the past week (4th-10th November).

What the polls looked like before the election

In the week before Parliament voted for an early general election, the Tories had good reason to feel confident about winning a snap election. In the week of 21st-27th October, their poll lead was impressive: they led Labour by 15pts, which on a universal swing would result in a Conservative majority of 74 seats – the biggest Conservative majority since 1987.

However, this has rapidly changed.

What the polls look like now

In the two weeks since then, Labour has rapidly improved its share of the vote, whilst the Tories’ share of the vote (38%) has not changed.

In 14 days, Labour’s average vote share has risen from 23% to 28%, a change driven largely by gains amongst Remain voters. In the week of 21st-27th October, voting intention amongst Remain voters was:

Labour 34%, Lib Dem 33%, Tories 18%, Green 7%, SNP 6% 

But by the week of 4th-10th November, this had shifted to:

Labour 41% (+7), Lib Dem 29% (-4), Tories 18% (-), SNP 6% (-), Green 5% (-2) 

Labour has also increased its vote share amongst Leave voters from 10% to 13%.

As a result of these Labour gains, the Tories’ lead has fallen from 15pts to 10pts after just two weeks. The overall changes are:

Tories 38% (-), Labour 28% (+5), Lib Dem 16% (-2), Brexit 9% (-2), SNP 4% (-), Green 3% (-1)

As a result, the Tories’ estimated majority has substantially declined. In the week of 4th-10th November, the Tories’ estimated majority was just 28 seats – down from 74 seats just two weeks ago.

It is worth bearing in mind that, at a similar stage in the 2017 election campaign, the Tories’ estimated majority was an astonishing 114 seats. They went on to lose their majority just 5 weeks later.

How is Labour doing compared to this point in 2017?

MPs voted to hold the 2017 general election on 19th April 2017, so the period of time most comparable to Week 1 of the 2019 campaign was the week of 24th-30th April 2017. At this point in 2017, Labour was averaging 28%. The Tories’ average poll lead was 18pts, and their estimated majority was 114 seats.

Over the following few weeks, Labour support rose steadily, as shown in the chart below.

What is notable about the 2017 campaign is that, whilst Labour’s support rose significantly over the course of the campaign, it never rose by more than 3pts (on average) in any particular week. Indeed, aside from the week of 15-21 May 2017, Labour’s support never rose by more than 2pts. Therefore, even if we are on course for another 2017-style Labour resurgence, we should not expect to see significant changes in any particular week.

Instead, as long as Labour’s support is consistently rising by 2-3pts every single week, we should be in a very good position to win on December 12th.