My final weighted average of EU referendum polls, sourced from polls collectively surveying 48,949 people, shows the race narrowly tilted towards Remain but with the possibility of an upset.
With the average margin of error standing at 2.4%, this campaign is as likely to end in a 53-47 'Remain' vote as it is in a 52-48 'Leave' vote. There has been a clear shift to Remain in the last few days, however: out of the six polls that finished their fieldwork on the 22nd of June, four showed Remain ahead, one showed a 3-point swing to Remain and only one showed a 1-point swing in favour of Leave.
This will come down to the wire.
No comments:
Post a Comment