England’s new Mayors: who will win? (Part 1: West of England)

Recently, the Labour Party announced the selection of its candidate for the Mayoralty in the West of England (Lesley Mansell) and Tees Valley (Sue Jeffrey). This follows on from the selection of Steve Rotherham (Liverpool), Siôn Simon (the West Midlands) and Andy Burnham (Greater Manchester). Elections are also due in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. These new Mayors will have authority over economic development and regeneration, transport, borrowing, skills, housing, waste management and other affairs.

Speculation has arisen about possible surprising outcomes: the chances of Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Brophy have been talked up in Greater Manchester, with the Lib Dem pledging to campaign on a pro-EU platform, while the Guardian described the West Midlands race as “close” between Labour and the Tories. With no polls of these contests likely to be conducted, what we can tell from recent local contests and national polls about who is likely to win? Starting today with West of England, and finishing with Liverpool, I'm taking a look at the contests, sorted by (my own) order of closeness.

West of England (Toss-up)

2015 General Election Result:

2016 PCC Election Result:

The upcoming ballot in this small region – a combination of just 3 local authorities after the fourth quit the arrangement – doesn’t seem to have attracted much attention until Labour nominated Lesley Mansell for the post. But it could quite possibly end up being one of the surprises of the night.

The ‘West of England’ region is a combination of the city of Bristol, the borough of South Gloucestershire and the borough of Bath & North-East Somerset. In the 2015 general election these three boroughs elected 9 MPs, 6 of whom were Conservatives and 3 of whom were Labour (all in Bristol). But despite the Tories’ edge, their share of the vote across the region was pretty derisory: just 37%. The Tory edge in the Mayoral region is just 9%, which may seem impressive, but this was on a night when the Tories dominated the South West of England, winning a jaw-dropping 51 out of 55 seats. And bear in mind that in the Liverpool City Region, which is also electing a Mayor,  Labour’s lead at the 2015 election was 41 percentage points. In that context, this is relatively marginal.

The area’s marginality also becomes noteworthy when one considers that Avon & Somerset, the police area in which the Mayoral region sits, elected (and then re-elected) an independent PCC, Sue Mountstevens. In 2012, a plurality of voters in the region chose Mounstevens (36% for her to 27% for Labour); but in 2016, this had shifted to Labour. 30% voted Labour and 25% for Mounstevens. As Labour didn’t make it into the second round in 2012, we don’t know what would have happened if just the Mayoral region voted, but we do in 2016. Labour narrowly lost the police area as a whole, but within the West of England region, Labour won by 78,553 votes (53%) to 69,321 (47%) for Mountstevens.

Added to this interesting local situation is the area’s decision on the EU referendum. The region voted to Remain by an impressive margin of 56% to 44%, meaning that this is the sort of area where the Lib Dems’ strategy of targeting Remain voters could bear fruit. The Green Party is also a factor: they nearly won Bristol West in 2015, and although they fell back in the local council elections in 2016, they remain a more significant force in Bristol than almost anywhere else in the country bar Brighton. They could also draw votes from a Labour candidate.

Given all these factors, a prediction is very difficult to make. I would rate this as a Conservative/Labour toss-up. On a very good night, Labour will win. On a reasonable night, it’s too close to call (as with the PCC election). On a bad night, Labour loses.