Remainers aren’t voting for the Lib Dems: they now support Labour

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“We are the party of Remain”, said Jo Swinson when she was elected as Leader of the Liberal Democrats in June 2019.

But Remainers don’t seem to agree.

Ever since the 2019 general election began, the Liberal Democrats – running on a manifesto pledge to revoke Article 50 – have been rapidly losing the support of Remain voters, with Remainers overwhelmingly rallying behind the Labour Party’s second referendum policy as the best and most credible way to stop Brexit. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

1) Remainers support Labour’s Brexit policy

In a poll conducted on 21-23 November, DeltaPollUK found that more Remain voters support Labour's policy of holding a referendum on a renegotiated Brexit than support revoking Article 50.

Furthermore, in September 2019, YouGov asked voters in a poll how they would feel if Labour supported particular policies on Brexit. Amongst Remain voters, 59% said that they would feel delighted/pleased if Labour adopted a policy of holding a referendum on a renegotiated Brexit deal; just 17% said that they would be disappointed/angry.

2) Remainers support Labour now, not the Lib Dems

Following the European Elections, in which the Liberal Democrats came second with 20%, Remain voters increasingly began to support the Lib Dems in opinion polls. This support reached its highest in the week of 23rd-29th September, when 38% of Remain voters said that they would vote Lib Dem – a 4pt lead over the Labour Party. The following weeks saw Labour and the Lib Dems tied for first place amongst Remainers.

But once the 2019 general election begun, Remainers began to rally behind the Labour Party; Labour’s support amongst Remainers (44%) is now at its highest since the week of 8th-14th April (when it was 48%).

In the past four weeks, Labour’s support amongst Remainers has risen from 34% to 44% (+10). With two-and-a-half weeks left before polling day, and with Labour’s support amongst Remainers rising by an average of 3pts per week, it is looking increasingly likely that Labour will equal (or even surpass) its 2017 vote share of 55% with Remainers.

So much for the idea that Remainers will never vote for Corbyn!

3) Remainers are liking Corbyn more and more, and Swinson less and less

In the week before MPs voted to hold the 2019 election (21st-27th October) Jo Swinson had an average net approval rating with Remain voters of +13pts, whilst Corbyn had an average net approval rating of -30pts. In the weeks since then, this gap has narrowed. Here’s Corbyn’s average approval rating amongst Remainers over time

Meanwhile, here is Jo Swinson’s approval rating amongst Remainers:

Swinson’s net approval rating has fallen from +13pts to +7pts in just a few weeks, whilst Corbyn’s net approval rating has risen from -30pts to -15pts.

After this week’s TV debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, Remainers were very positive about Corbyn. According to a YouGov poll of voters who watched the debate, amongst Remain voters:

-> 82% thought that Corbyn came across as more in touch with ordinary people

-> 77% thought that Jeremy Corbyn performed best overall

-> 73% thought that Corbyn came across as more trustworthy

-> 60% thought that Corbyn came across as more likeable

-> By a 16pt margin, they thought that Corbyn came across as more Prime Ministerial

-> By a 6pt margin, they thought that Corbyn performed best during the Brexit section of the debate

Conclusion

In this context, the argument that the Lib Dems are now the tactical vote choice in strongly pro-Remain areas is beginning to look very outdated. Remainers are overwhelmingly supporting the Labour Party now, not the Lib Dems; and rightly so, as only Labour can actually deliver a People’s Vote and give Britain the opportunity to remain in the European Union.

In 88% of the most marginal seats that were won by the Tories in 2017, Labour came second; Labour is currently averaging 30% in polls to the Lib Dems' 15%; most Remainers support the Labour Party, not the Liberal Democrats; and more Remainers prefer the Labour Party's Brexit policy than prefer the Lib Dems' Brexit policy.

All the available evidence shows that Labour is the party of Remain - not the Lib Dems.
If you're a Remainer, the choice is clear: either we leave the EU with Boris Johnson, or have a 2nd referendum with Jeremy Corbyn. There is no other possible outcome. The choice is yours.